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Bird Distribution Maps Downloads
Areas of Change Maps Downloads
Citations

Introduction

We used a machine learning, "maximum entropy" modeling method called Maxent (v.3.3.1; Phillips et al 2006, Phillips & Dudik 2008) to estimate habitat suitability across the state given the modeled relationship between a given species and current and future environmental covariates. Species models are available for downloading below and are viewable here. These species represent 7 major habitat types found within California including riparian, oak woodland, scrub, conifer, desert, wetland, and grassland habitat types.

We developed several climate based variables as inputs to our species models. Current climate data were based on monthly climate means from the PRISM dataset averaged for 1971 - 2000. Future climate projections are based on Regional Climate Model runs (Snyder and Sloan 2005) driven by one of two global climate models (GCMs) using the IPCC A2 emissions scenario: GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Climate Model averaged for the years 2038-2070 (GFDL CM2.1; 478-615 ppm CO2); and CCSM - National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 2.1 averaged for 2038-2069 (NCAR CCSM3.0; 478-610 ppm CO2); For the Environmental Change Network, we expanded our Maxent models to include nearly 200 breeding bird species. We used these models as well as the climate variables to develop several indices of environmental change. These data are being used to guide the development of monitoring stations throughout California. These indices are viewable here and are also available for download below.

Bird Distribution Maps

Name	Definition	Model
Future Maxent species models(CCSM) CCSM_Future_Models.zip(409MB)	Maxent models of future CA breeding bird distributions using the CCSM GCM
Future Maxent species models(GFDL) GFDL_Future_Models.zip(411MB)	Maxent models of future CA breeding bird distributions using the GFDL GCM
Current species models Current_Models.zip(410MB)	Maxent models of current CA breeding bird distributions
Individual Species Models	Current and future models available by individual species	Link
Vegetation Models	Link to the vegetation models directory	Link

Areas of Change Maps

Name	Definition	Grid (ascii)
Bird Community Dissimilarity - Maxent (CCSM) ccsm.bc.asc	Bird community turnover for current and future climate (CCSM) based on maxent models for 198 land bird species.
Species Richness (CCSM) ccsm.etss.rich.asc	Future land bird species richness based on maxent models of 198 species and the CCSM GCM.
Index of Species Richness ccsm.rich.asc	Index of future species richness based on maxent models and the CCSM GCM.
Bird Community Dissimilarity - GDM (CCSM) ccsmgdmmeanbc.asc	Mean bird community turnover for current and future climate (CCSM) based on 20 bootstrapped generalized dissimilarity models for 198 land bird species. Values are Bray-Curtis distance.
Bird Community Dissimilarity - GDM Std. Err. (CCSM) ccsmgdmsebc.asc	The standard error of 20 bootstrapped generalized dissimilarity models for 198 land bird species using the CCSM GCM.
Local Climate Change - spatial ccsmsed7km.asc	Standardized Euclidean distance between current and future climate (CCSM GCM). Standardization is the standard deviation of each climate variable based on a 7km radius around each grid cell.
Index of Species Richness (current) curr.richness.asc	Index of current land bird species richness based on maxent models of 198 species.
Species Richness (current) current.etss.rich.asc	Current land bird species richness based on maxent models of 198 species.
Bird Community Dissimilarity - Maxent (GFDL) gfdl.bc.asc	Bird community turnover for current and future climate (GFDL) based on maxent models for 198 land bird species.
Species Richness (GFDL) gfdl.etss.rich.asc	Future land bird species richness based on maxent models of 198 species and the GFDL GCM.
Index of Species Richness (GFDL) gfdl.rich.asc	Index of future land bird species richness based on maxent models of 198 species and the GFDL GCM.
Bird Community Dissimilarity (GFDL) gfdlgdmmeanbc.asc	Mean bird community turnover for current and future climate (GFDL) based on 20 bootstrapped generalized dissimilarity models for 198 land bird species. Values are Bray-Curtis distance.
Bird Community Dissimilarity - GDM Std. Err. (GFDL) gfdlgdmsebc.asc	The standard error of 20 bootstrapped generalized dissimilarity models for 198 land bird species using the GFDL GCM.
Local Climate Change - spatial (GFDL) gfdlsed7km.asc	Standardized Euclidean distance between current and future climate (GFDL GCM). Standardization is the standard deviation of each climate variable based on a 7km radius around each grid cell.
Future zoantion prioritization (CCSM) allfut_CCSM_weights_caz.rank.asc	Zonation conservation rankings based on species distribution models for 198 land bird species under future (2038-2069) climate conditions using the CCSM GCM.
Future zoantion prioritization (GFDL) allfut_GFDL_weights_caz.rank.asc	Zonation conservation rankings based on species distribution models for 198 land bird species under future (2038-2070) climate conditions using the GFDL GCM.
Current zonation prioritization allcur_weights_caz.rank.asc	Zonation conservation rankings based on species distribution models for 198 land bird species under current (1971-2000) climate conditions.
Current and future combined zonation prioritization (CCSM) allCurFut_CCSM_weights_caz.rank.asc	Zonation conservation rankings based on species distribution models for 198 land bird species under current (1971-2000) and future (2038-2069) climate conditions using the CCSM GCM.
Current and future combined zonation prioritization (GFDL) allCurFut_GFDL_weights_caz.rank.asc	Zonation conservation rankings based on species distribution models for 198 land bird species under current (1971-2000) and future (2038-2070) climate conditions using the GFDL GCM.

Citations

Phillips, S.J., R.P. Anderson, & R.E. Schapire. 2006. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling. 190:231-59.

Phillips, S.J. & M. Dudik. 2008. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31:161-175.

Snyder, M. A., J. L. Bell, , L. C. Sloan, P. B. Duffy, & B. Govindasamy. 2002. Climate responses to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide for a climatically vulnerable region. Geophysical Research Letters 29, 9-1 to 9-4.